Like many other markets the Forex market is driven by supply and demand. When there is a demand for a currency its price rises and when there is an excessive supply of a currency its price falls. This may seem simple enough but unfortunately predicting movements in currency prices can be extremely difficult.
Today there are two main methods used to predict movements in the Forex market:
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis was the dominant predictive tool in the Forex market until the mid 1980s, although it has since declined in popularity. Fundamental analysis focuses its attention on the political, social and economic factors which drive supply and demand and is based upon such things as interest rates, inflation, unemployment and economic growth rates. All of these different indicators are used to assess a currency's present performance and then to predict its future movement.
The problem with fundamental analysis is that the trader has to keep up with events and to analyze a huge amount of data. Additionally, there is a great deal of debate about just what data needs to be included in any fundamental analysis and how much weight should be put upon each of the different indicators.
On thing about which there is general agreement is that a country's balance of payments is key to fundamental analysis as it shows the flow of money in and out of the country. In theory, a balance of payments of zero will produce a stable price while a balance of payments deficit or surplus will cause the currency to fall or rise.
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is based simply upon movements in currency prices and uses historical price data to predict future prices.
The main principle behind technical analysis is that history repeats itself and that price movements today merely follow well established patterns. The second principle is that it is not necessary to study current market information to predict movements in the market as this is already reflected in currency prices. It is simply the movement in prices themselves that needs to be studied in order to predict the direction in which prices are moving.
Technical analysis uses charts to provide a graphical representation of the market over time and allows the trader to identify trends in the pattern of price movements. There are various different charting techniques used today including such things as moving averages, oscillators, candlestick charts, Fibonacci retracement levels, Bollinger bands and others.
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